Objective method for analysis of mineral resources supply on the example of Russia

DOI: 10.47765/0869-5997-2021-10025

Abstract

A forecast of nonfuel mineral production in Russia is considered, based on the integration of the expected life of specific deposits currently exploited and developed. It is shown that mineral safety is fully ensured for copper, nickel, lead, tungsten and tin, whose reserves are sufficient for their extraction, at least at the current level, for 40–50 years and there are real prospects for its significant growth. The sufficiency of other minerals is much lower: for molybdenum and chromium, it is limited to about 30 years, and the extraction of zinc and uranium in Russia may significantly decrease in 20 years. The situation is more difficult with the most liquid solid minerals, like gold and diamonds. The commissioning of mining enterprises at the developed gold deposits can ensure a rapid growth in the production of the precious metal in the coming years. However, at the beginning of the next decade, the resource base depletion of the Olimpiada field and a number of other exploited deposits is predicted. The projects currently implemented for the development of new fields do not compensate for the lost capacity. This may account for a long-term (until the beginning of the 2050s) decline in the Russian gold production, which may be halved against the current level by the end of this period. Such a scenario can only be avoided with the intensification of geological exploration in
the coming years. The earlier decrease in the number of diamonds mined in Russia, associated with the depletion of reserves of exploited pipes, is predicted (since 2025). Unless new deposits are discovered and developed, the domestic production of precious stones will steadily decline and, in the 2040s, may be reduced fourfold.